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MARCH 2018

Guatemala Low Emissions Development

CCS Releases Guatemala National Baselines Report

GUATEMALA CITY, March 2018.  The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) released a national baseline assessment report in support of the USAID/Guatemala Low Emission Development Project. The assessment uses state of the art analysis, and was developed through cooperation with over 150 stakeholders and national agencies of the government of Guatemala. It provides historical and forecasted estimates of national indicators for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy, resources, and economic activity from 1990-2050, and has enabled development of over 40 new policy actions to meet national economic, energy, resource, emissions, and equity goals. CCS assistance was provided through the coordination and in-country support of the Research Triangle Institute (RTI) International.


The Guatemala baseline report was developed through a fully participatory, stakeholder-based, multi objective planning and analysis process encompassing ten specific decision-making steps. Dozens of stakeholders participated in each of six expert technical work groups, or Mesas, covering all economic sectors and provided review and inputs to the baseline report. Key findings indicate that Guatemala’s forests are, by far, the current largest source of GHGs due to land use change, unsustainable harvests, and natural disasters. The forestry and other land use (FOLU) sector contribution is expected to grow through 2050 (contributing to a near doubling of economy-wide emissions between 2020 and 2050). The next largest emitting sectors are transportation (mainly onroad vehicles) and agriculture. Due to a relatively low carbon intensity of electricity supply and a moderate climate for a majority of the population, emissions from energy supply and the residential/commercial/institutional sectors are small in relation to many countries.


Economic growth and GHGs have begun to diverge in Guatemala, indicating that future emissions growth is not inevitable but can be separated from sustainable economic growth. However, to meet national climate change commitments and global climate stabilization needs, a full suite of low emission development actions is needed across all sectors.

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Guatemala’s Net GHG Emissions Baseline (Sources and Sinks)

Guatemala’s inventory and forecast of GHGs shows that net emissions from forests are by far the largest of all sectors, followed by onroad transportation and agriculture. Improved management approaches are needed to meet climate change and other national goals. Units are in teragrams of carbon dioxide equivalent (Tg CO2e) each equal to one million metric ton.

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