A demographic profile of the 2016 electorate may provide a sense of the 2020 electorate. An estimated 137.5 million Americans turned out to vote, of whom 48% voted for Hillary Clinton and 46% voted for Donald Trump. Clinton won the popular vote by three million votes, but Trump won the electoral college vote.
Women comprised an overwhelming majority of the electorate, 55% to 45%. A majority (54%) supported Clinton, but only 41% of men voted for Clinton.
Among younger voters under 50, Clinton was favored by 63% of women, but by only 43% of men. Conversely, voters over 50 were more closely divided, with 48% of women favoring Clinton, but only 40% of men.
Voters with four-year college degrees or more, accounted for 30% of all voters (41,500,000), and they heavily favored Clinton over Trump by 55% to 38%.
By comparison, voters with less education comprised 44% of all voters (60,500,000). Of that number, 64% supported Trump and only 28% voted for Clinton.
The electorate was also divided by marital status. The overwhelming majority of married voters supported Trump, 55% to 39%. Among single voters, an even larger majority supported Clinton, 58% to 34%.
Voters under 30 years of age comprised only 13% of the electorate (17,875,000). They overwhelmingly supported Clinton over Trump, 58% to 28%. Surprisingly, 14% supported a 3rd party candidate.
Clinton also carried the 30-49 age group, by 51% to 40%, but Trump received a majority of the 50-64 and the 65+ age groups by 51% to 45% and 53% to 44%, respectively.
Turnout in the 2020 presidential election is expected to exceed the number that voted in 2016. If Biden does as well as Clinton did in 2016, he should carry the vote from women, better educated Americans, those 18-50 years of age, and unmarried. The age groups that could shift to Biden are the 50-64 and 65+ because of the very narrow margins by which Trump won in 2016 among these voters. Trump’s base of support should again come primarily from white men.
Dr. Juan Andrade, Jr.
United States Hispanic Leadership Institute, Inc.